Public model tracker
A sanitized public record of the concentrated six-stock model, monthly keep-or-replace decisions, and the evidence rules used to avoid turning a watchlist into a noisy portfolio.
| Weight | Model INR | Name | Role | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | INR 1,25,000 | KPELKP Energy | Anchor renewable alpha | Core hold / buy staged |
| 20% | INR 1,00,000 | DHABRIYADhabriya Polywood | Hidden-quality margin inflection | Core hold / buy staged |
| 17.5% | INR 87,500 | PIGLPower & Instrumentation Gujarat | Microcap order-book asymmetry | Capped alpha |
| 15% | INR 75,000 | JNKINDIAJNK India | Order book entering P&L | Capped alpha |
| 12.5% | INR 62,500 | DYCLDynamic Cables | Cleaner cable-cycle quality alpha | Quality alpha |
| 10% | INR 50,000 | TEMBOTembo Global | Capped high-asymmetry optionality | Speculative cap |
Thesis: Low-PE renewable execution with strong revenue growth and a valuation that still leaves room for rerating.
Buy rule: Build first while valuation remains a small-cap growth bargain and receivables stay controlled.
Break rule: Trim if project execution slips, receivables stretch, or group complexity starts driving the story.
Thesis: Microcap quality candidate with PAT doubling, expanded EBITDA margin and a still-sane valuation base.
Buy rule: Build after confirming liquidity; add only if FY26 keeps the new margin band intact.
Break rule: Reduce if inventory, debt or receivables absorb the reported earnings growth.
Thesis: Order book is materially larger than market cap, with RDSS work and Peaton busduct optionality.
Buy rule: Build capped exposure only while PAT margin begins catching up with revenue growth.
Break rule: Do not average down if orders convert into low-margin working-capital strain.
Thesis: Q3 revenue and PAT acceleration show that order visibility is already touching reported earnings.
Buy rule: Start now; scale only after the next result confirms conversion without debtor blowout.
Break rule: Reduce if receivables expand faster than sales or order conversion stalls.
Thesis: Mid-teens valuation, PAT growth, order visibility and solar DC/e-beam capacity provide a second trigger.
Buy rule: Build measured exposure; add if order inflow, spreads and capacity ramp remain disciplined.
Break rule: Trim if cable spreads turn, receivables worsen, or capacity ramp disappoints.
Thesis: Large order book and scaled 9M profit create upside, but cash-flow and governance risks cap sizing.
Buy rule: Hold as option-sized exposure; do not average up without cash-flow and governance proof.
Break rule: Reduce quickly on weak operating cash flow, guarantees, related-party issues or dilution.
| Date | Ticker | Action | Weight Change | Public Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | KPEL | MODEL_START | 25% | Initial model allocation for anchor renewable alpha. |
| 2026-05-01 | DHABRIYA | MODEL_START | 20% | Initial model allocation for hidden-quality margin inflection. |
| 2026-05-01 | PIGL | MODEL_START | 17.5% | Initial model allocation for microcap order-book asymmetry. |
| 2026-05-01 | JNKINDIA | MODEL_START | 15% | Initial model allocation for order book entering p&l. |
| 2026-05-01 | DYCL | MODEL_START | 12.5% | Initial model allocation for cleaner cable-cycle quality alpha. |
| 2026-05-01 | TEMBO | MODEL_START | 10% | Initial model allocation for capped high-asymmetry optionality. |
Published 2026-05-01.
| Ticker | Decision | Public Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| KPEL | KEEP | Best valuation-growth anchor from the research set. |
| DHABRIYA | KEEP | Margin-led earnings acceleration earns core alpha weight. |
| PIGL | KEEP | Order-book asymmetry is strong, but sizing remains capped until margin proof improves. |
| JNKINDIA | KEEP | Order conversion has started, while working capital remains the review point. |
| DYCL | KEEP | Cleaner cable-cycle exposure with capacity optionality and sane valuation. |
| TEMBO | KEEP CAPPED | Upside is attractive, but governance and cash-flow checks prevent higher sizing. |
Watch / capped challenger: Order-book-to-market-cap math is attractive, but leverage and copper/input-cost risk need proof.
Watch / quality challenger: Precision industrial growth is good, but near-30x PE and margin compression keep it outside the top six.
Quality ballast: Useful low-PE quality name, but lower 5x torque than the concentrated alpha basket.
Tiny optionality: Interesting order-book asymmetry, but liquidity and debtor risk make it too small for the primary model.
Tactical side trade: Refinery-cycle value is real, but it is not treated as a permanent multibagger compounder.
Tembo is capped at 10%. PIGL and JNK must prove margin and receivable quality. KPEL and Dhabriya carry the cleanest alpha weight, but both still need monthly working-capital review. CPCL is outside this model because refinery-cycle value is not treated as permanent compounding.
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